1 00:00:12,020 --> 00:00:09,200 I'm Cole Mathis I'm a PhD student at 2 00:00:13,610 --> 00:00:12,030 Arizona State University I'm a 3 00:00:15,049 --> 00:00:13,620 theoretical physicist I study the 4 00:00:17,599 --> 00:00:15,059 original life and I just got back from 5 00:00:20,689 --> 00:00:17,609 10 days of field work with geochemists 6 00:00:22,099 --> 00:00:20,699 in Yellowstone I already mentioned the 7 00:00:23,540 --> 00:00:22,109 title of my talk before I get started I 8 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:23,550 want to thank a few people everyone for 9 00:00:28,269 --> 00:00:25,410 me life is awesome a research lab 10 00:00:30,380 --> 00:00:28,279 they're great these two smokes a 11 00:00:31,970 --> 00:00:30,390 constant sounding board for me they're 12 00:00:33,500 --> 00:00:31,980 both here I appreciate their input on 13 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:33,510 all these crazy and half warm thoughts 14 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:35,850 that come out of my head some people 15 00:00:40,910 --> 00:00:39,210 that aren't here vim deck Vito 16 00:00:44,180 --> 00:00:40,920 peel for introducing me to generative 17 00:00:46,160 --> 00:00:44,190 models and Niles layman who does auto 18 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:46,170 catalytic sets in RNA chemistry has had 19 00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:49,530 some interesting input my advisor Sarah 20 00:00:54,889 --> 00:00:52,170 Walker she's spectacular she's super 21 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:54,899 awesome oh and the snake river for 22 00:00:59,450 --> 00:00:56,850 nucleating the idea behind this talk in 23 00:01:01,580 --> 00:00:59,460 my head somehow also if you're wondering 24 00:01:05,450 --> 00:01:01,590 what a theoretical physicist ads for 25 00:01:07,910 --> 00:01:05,460 field work that's that's about it it's 26 00:01:10,850 --> 00:01:07,920 very theoretical all right here's a 27 00:01:11,929 --> 00:01:10,860 slightly better name for my talk so I'm 28 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:11,939 going to talk about the emergence of 29 00:01:17,420 --> 00:01:14,250 dynamic community structure and maybe 30 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:17,430 autocatalytic network so hopefully I can 31 00:01:21,859 --> 00:01:18,810 unpack what that means by the end of 32 00:01:24,410 --> 00:01:21,869 this talk it's a complicated idea but I 33 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:24,420 think with excellent introductions from 34 00:01:27,950 --> 00:01:26,490 Harrison and then it'll be easier for 35 00:01:31,550 --> 00:01:27,960 you swallow and hopefully I'll 36 00:01:32,749 --> 00:01:31,560 understand what I'm saying all right so 37 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:32,759 if you study the original life 38 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:34,170 eventually you ask yourself this 39 00:01:37,730 --> 00:01:36,329 question right and Tessa touched on this 40 00:01:39,649 --> 00:01:37,740 earlier what is life we don't have a 41 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:39,659 good answer but there's some features 42 00:01:43,130 --> 00:01:40,890 right it's a one feature of life that 43 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:43,140 you might want to try to explain is all 44 00:01:46,999 --> 00:01:44,850 the diversity we find in the biosphere 45 00:01:48,980 --> 00:01:47,009 right that's one thing that's like wow 46 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:48,990 how do we explain this diversity thats 47 00:01:54,050 --> 00:01:51,090 everywhere how can we come up with a 48 00:01:55,340 --> 00:01:54,060 mechanism to really handle that another 49 00:01:57,109 --> 00:01:55,350 thing you might be curious about is like 50 00:01:59,870 --> 00:01:57,119 life is actually this very ordered and 51 00:02:00,980 --> 00:01:59,880 structured sort of set of chemical 52 00:02:03,249 --> 00:02:00,990 reactions that have a particular 53 00:02:04,700 --> 00:02:03,259 function and operate in particular way 54 00:02:06,590 --> 00:02:04,710 so these are two different 55 00:02:08,809 --> 00:02:06,600 interpretations to this question they're 56 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:08,819 both obviously valid answers but 57 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:09,929 depending on what you think is more 58 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:11,370 interesting more important you might go 59 00:02:13,670 --> 00:02:13,050 different ways right so if you're 60 00:02:15,830 --> 00:02:13,680 interested in 61 00:02:17,449 --> 00:02:15,840 diversity you know our friend Darwin 62 00:02:19,009 --> 00:02:17,459 told us there's a way to explain this 63 00:02:20,420 --> 00:02:19,019 diversity it involves things that make 64 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:20,430 copies of themselves and a few other 65 00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:22,170 features you might study things that do 66 00:02:25,849 --> 00:02:24,390 this in this talk I'm going to focus on 67 00:02:27,589 --> 00:02:25,859 the kinds of things Ben was talking 68 00:02:30,379 --> 00:02:27,599 about which are autocatalytic sets which 69 00:02:32,330 --> 00:02:30,389 are coupled reactions that form networks 70 00:02:34,849 --> 00:02:32,340 and sometimes these networks have auto 71 00:02:36,259 --> 00:02:34,859 catalytic features where they can make 72 00:02:38,990 --> 00:02:36,269 more of themselves and everything in it 73 00:02:41,509 --> 00:02:39,000 grows exponentially so that's what I'm 74 00:02:43,729 --> 00:02:41,519 going to focus on today so here's a 75 00:02:45,199 --> 00:02:43,739 brief outline I'm going to describe my 76 00:02:47,839 --> 00:02:45,209 model which is very similar to the one 77 00:02:49,129 --> 00:02:47,849 been described and then I'm going to 78 00:02:51,229 --> 00:02:49,139 talk about some background in auto 79 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:51,239 catalytic sets some results from the 80 00:02:55,309 --> 00:02:54,090 early 70s and some later refinements I'm 81 00:02:56,149 --> 00:02:55,319 going to mention networks and in 82 00:02:58,280 --> 00:02:56,159 particular i'm going to talk about 83 00:03:00,709 --> 00:02:58,290 stochastic block models as a type of 84 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:00,719 generative model then i'm going to talk 85 00:03:03,920 --> 00:03:02,370 about a little bit of information theory 86 00:03:07,399 --> 00:03:03,930 describe mutual information it's easy 87 00:03:09,470 --> 00:03:07,409 don't freak out and then I'm going to 88 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:09,480 show how to identify structure in the 89 00:03:13,339 --> 00:03:11,370 dynamics of these autocatalytic sets and 90 00:03:14,929 --> 00:03:13,349 maybe some hints that there's a phase 91 00:03:17,449 --> 00:03:14,939 transition to dynamic order in these 92 00:03:20,089 --> 00:03:17,459 things which is rampantly speculative 93 00:03:22,580 --> 00:03:20,099 but I think I can justify all right so 94 00:03:23,509 --> 00:03:22,590 my model is really similar to Ben's so 95 00:03:25,580 --> 00:03:23,519 there's this sort of background 96 00:03:27,110 --> 00:03:25,590 chemistry going on right there's great 97 00:03:28,640 --> 00:03:27,120 squares and blue squares and they can 98 00:03:30,199 --> 00:03:28,650 come together they can form these 99 00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:30,209 sequences grain blue could be one and 100 00:03:33,770 --> 00:03:31,650 zero they could be a and B whatever you 101 00:03:35,330 --> 00:03:33,780 like so there's ligation when they come 102 00:03:37,969 --> 00:03:35,340 together there's Association when they 103 00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:37,979 fall apart in my model in contrast to 104 00:03:43,099 --> 00:03:40,500 Ben's it's close mass and i explicitly 105 00:03:44,689 --> 00:03:43,109 model the degradation so that has some 106 00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:44,699 interesting feedbacks but it's very 107 00:03:49,670 --> 00:03:47,790 similar so all of these reactions for 108 00:03:52,009 --> 00:03:49,680 all possible combinations of sequences 109 00:03:53,929 --> 00:03:52,019 are possible in mind and then there are 110 00:03:56,539 --> 00:03:53,939 some catalyzed reactions so this is an 111 00:03:58,369 --> 00:03:56,549 example of the formation of this gray 112 00:04:00,199 --> 00:03:58,379 dimer could be catalyzed by the great 113 00:04:02,210 --> 00:04:00,209 rhymer right there's lots of different 114 00:04:03,439 --> 00:04:02,220 ones you could do I'm going to spend the 115 00:04:06,589 --> 00:04:03,449 entire talk talking about this 116 00:04:08,270 --> 00:04:06,599 particular network of reactions it's 117 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:08,280 sort of obvious when you look at it it's 118 00:04:14,929 --> 00:04:12,090 a mirror image make dimers make trimers 119 00:04:18,620 --> 00:04:14,939 trimers make these trimers help things 120 00:04:22,009 --> 00:04:18,630 that go astray right so pretty simple is 121 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:22,019 anybody confused by this yet cool all 122 00:04:26,420 --> 00:04:23,849 right it's a background on our kind of 123 00:04:26,890 --> 00:04:26,430 like set theory so if you take all of 124 00:04:28,749 --> 00:04:26,900 these 125 00:04:30,460 --> 00:04:28,759 reactions and you randomly sprinkle 126 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:30,470 catalysts you say this molecule 127 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:32,930 catalyzes this reaction you're 128 00:04:39,490 --> 00:04:36,770 guaranteed to get auto catalytic sets if 129 00:04:40,719 --> 00:04:39,500 the random you're guaranteed to get auto 130 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:40,729 catalytic sets as long as the 131 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:42,410 probability is high enough and as long 132 00:04:47,110 --> 00:04:44,810 as the polymers are long enough this is 133 00:04:48,939 --> 00:04:47,120 a result from 1970 a lot of chemists got 134 00:04:52,029 --> 00:04:48,949 really mad about it there's been a lot 135 00:04:54,550 --> 00:04:52,039 of refinements it's held up for 40 years 136 00:04:55,900 --> 00:04:54,560 at this point here's a great reference 137 00:04:57,219 --> 00:04:55,910 if you're curious about these kind of 138 00:04:59,110 --> 00:04:57,229 things didn't port act studies I'm 139 00:05:02,020 --> 00:04:59,120 extensively and he's really good at at 140 00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:02,030 handling them so now let's take a step 141 00:05:05,830 --> 00:05:04,310 back so keep this in your head keep this 142 00:05:06,790 --> 00:05:05,840 in your head here's another thing to 143 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:06,800 keep in your head all right what are 144 00:05:09,700 --> 00:05:07,970 networks Harrison did a good job 145 00:05:11,260 --> 00:05:09,710 describing these things here's some 146 00:05:13,510 --> 00:05:11,270 example of networks right nodes and 147 00:05:15,730 --> 00:05:13,520 edges an entity and a link between 148 00:05:17,980 --> 00:05:15,740 entities right how do we describe them 149 00:05:19,570 --> 00:05:17,990 one way to describe networks is with 150 00:05:21,820 --> 00:05:19,580 what's called an adjacency matrix right 151 00:05:23,980 --> 00:05:21,830 so like this network you have one two 152 00:05:26,980 --> 00:05:23,990 three and four here right we could label 153 00:05:29,230 --> 00:05:26,990 1234 1234 we could put a zero if there's 154 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:29,240 a no link and one if there is a link 155 00:05:33,730 --> 00:05:32,330 right simple description and then you 156 00:05:35,050 --> 00:05:33,740 could get different combinations of 157 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:35,060 these to form different different 158 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:37,250 matrices right so these these are two 159 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:39,250 representations of the same thing 160 00:05:43,420 --> 00:05:41,930 similarly we could wait the edges right 161 00:05:46,629 --> 00:05:43,430 so this is a slightly different kind of 162 00:05:48,430 --> 00:05:46,639 network but all we've done is instead of 163 00:05:51,790 --> 00:05:48,440 ones and zeros on this adjacency matrix 164 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:51,800 we've put real value numbers right the 165 00:05:56,260 --> 00:05:54,650 slight generalization ok so now that's 166 00:05:58,750 --> 00:05:56,270 in your head how do we describe networks 167 00:06:00,700 --> 00:05:58,760 one way to describe networks is with a 168 00:06:01,990 --> 00:06:00,710 thing called a generative model there's 169 00:06:04,089 --> 00:06:02,000 lots of different kinds of generative 170 00:06:06,219 --> 00:06:04,099 models and the idea here is you have a 171 00:06:08,110 --> 00:06:06,229 statistical representation of the 172 00:06:11,290 --> 00:06:08,120 network you define a set of parameters 173 00:06:12,969 --> 00:06:11,300 that you can use to generate networks 174 00:06:14,740 --> 00:06:12,979 which are statistically similar to the 175 00:06:18,129 --> 00:06:14,750 one you're interested in so for example 176 00:06:19,689 --> 00:06:18,139 here we've got three different networks 177 00:06:24,100 --> 00:06:19,699 they all have four nodes and they all 178 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:24,110 have what four edges yeah maybe boy I 179 00:06:29,020 --> 00:06:27,770 can't count so the idea here is these 180 00:06:30,370 --> 00:06:29,030 are all equivalent they all have the 181 00:06:31,930 --> 00:06:30,380 same number of nodes at the same number 182 00:06:34,210 --> 00:06:31,940 of edges so I could make a generative 183 00:06:35,620 --> 00:06:34,220 model that says I'm going to describe my 184 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:35,630 network by the number of nodes and the 185 00:06:39,459 --> 00:06:37,610 number of edges you can refine that a 186 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:39,469 lot further right so generative models 187 00:06:42,809 --> 00:06:40,490 described structure 188 00:06:46,180 --> 00:06:42,819 in a statistical sense it's key point 189 00:06:48,939 --> 00:06:46,190 all right I stole these slides from a 190 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:48,949 professor here at cu-boulder Erin closet 191 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:51,289 he's pretty rad he put them online for 192 00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:53,690 free I don't think he'll mind they're 193 00:06:58,779 --> 00:06:56,770 great right a particular class of 194 00:07:00,339 --> 00:06:58,789 generative models for networks that have 195 00:07:02,980 --> 00:07:00,349 become very very popular are called 196 00:07:05,050 --> 00:07:02,990 stochastic block models stochastic block 197 00:07:07,930 --> 00:07:05,060 models look for community structure in 198 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:07,940 networks so computer scientists mostly 199 00:07:10,450 --> 00:07:09,050 worried about these kinds of things and 200 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:10,460 computer scientists like well-formed 201 00:07:15,159 --> 00:07:12,410 problems right so here's a well-formed 202 00:07:17,050 --> 00:07:15,169 problem I'm gonna give you guys a social 203 00:07:18,790 --> 00:07:17,060 network for everyone in this room right 204 00:07:20,860 --> 00:07:18,800 and then you're going to tell me if 205 00:07:22,689 --> 00:07:20,870 there's community structure in it and 206 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:22,699 what that is right and so we know 207 00:07:25,270 --> 00:07:23,810 there's community structure in here 208 00:07:26,950 --> 00:07:25,280 right there's like a bunch of us from 209 00:07:29,260 --> 00:07:26,960 ASU there's all these see you people 210 00:07:31,029 --> 00:07:29,270 right so this might be our social 211 00:07:32,469 --> 00:07:31,039 network lots of us know each other but 212 00:07:34,059 --> 00:07:32,479 these might be the communities within it 213 00:07:35,830 --> 00:07:34,069 right this might be a su this might be 214 00:07:37,899 --> 00:07:35,840 bolder this might be somewhere else this 215 00:07:39,370 --> 00:07:37,909 might be everybody else right so you 216 00:07:43,210 --> 00:07:39,380 want to break you want to break the 217 00:07:44,890 --> 00:07:43,220 network into structures where within the 218 00:07:46,749 --> 00:07:44,900 community their links are their 219 00:07:48,700 --> 00:07:46,759 properties are similar and without the 220 00:07:51,610 --> 00:07:48,710 community their properties are different 221 00:07:53,140 --> 00:07:51,620 right it's a simple idea there's a lot 222 00:07:55,959 --> 00:07:53,150 of different ways to do with it do it 223 00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:55,969 this is a associative network right so 224 00:07:59,499 --> 00:07:57,770 where things that are similar associate 225 00:08:01,510 --> 00:07:59,509 with each other starts to look like this 226 00:08:02,830 --> 00:08:01,520 this is the inverse of that dissociative 227 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:02,840 you don't hang out with anybody that's 228 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:04,250 like you right this is what you should 229 00:08:07,089 --> 00:08:05,810 do at a conference right don't hang out 230 00:08:09,909 --> 00:08:07,099 with the people from your lab go meet 231 00:08:11,260 --> 00:08:09,919 other people there's ordered ones where 232 00:08:12,879 --> 00:08:11,270 it's kind of in between and then there's 233 00:08:16,330 --> 00:08:12,889 these core periphery ones which are a 234 00:08:18,430 --> 00:08:16,340 particular interest to metabolisms all 235 00:08:20,670 --> 00:08:18,440 right so what have I told you I told you 236 00:08:23,379 --> 00:08:20,680 about my model I've told you about a 237 00:08:24,850 --> 00:08:23,389 generative model for networks right I we 238 00:08:26,890 --> 00:08:24,860 can describe the structure of networks 239 00:08:28,990 --> 00:08:26,900 and statistical sense by creating a 240 00:08:31,059 --> 00:08:29,000 model that makes things like it right 241 00:08:33,010 --> 00:08:31,069 all right everybody got all this in 242 00:08:35,019 --> 00:08:33,020 their head I'm gonna add another piece 243 00:08:37,510 --> 00:08:35,029 here's information theory this is like 244 00:08:38,709 --> 00:08:37,520 page 2 of an information theory textbook 245 00:08:40,899 --> 00:08:38,719 it's not stare it's called mutual 246 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:40,909 information if you have two variables x 247 00:08:45,790 --> 00:08:43,130 and y the mutual information between x 248 00:08:48,100 --> 00:08:45,800 and y is how much do I learn about why 249 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:48,110 given that I know X or how much do I 250 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:49,730 learn about x given that I know why it's 251 00:08:53,750 --> 00:08:52,010 symmetric it's totally correlation 252 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:53,760 there's no causal anything 253 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:54,810 you can think of it like a linear 254 00:08:57,380 --> 00:08:56,370 correlation except super generalized 255 00:08:59,060 --> 00:08:57,390 right so it's kind of like a nard 256 00:09:01,100 --> 00:08:59,070 squared value for things that are like 257 00:09:04,340 --> 00:09:01,110 so far away from linear you couldn't 258 00:09:05,990 --> 00:09:04,350 even couldn't even fathom all right so 259 00:09:08,030 --> 00:09:06,000 remember my model this is why my model 260 00:09:10,580 --> 00:09:08,040 looks right like right so what are my 261 00:09:11,870 --> 00:09:10,590 variables I've got lots of the different 262 00:09:14,270 --> 00:09:11,880 concentrations of these different 263 00:09:15,590 --> 00:09:14,280 polymers floating around right so I 264 00:09:17,780 --> 00:09:15,600 could look at a time series of these 265 00:09:19,820 --> 00:09:17,790 concentrations which is what these are 266 00:09:21,860 --> 00:09:19,830 right darker colors means there was more 267 00:09:25,010 --> 00:09:21,870 at a given time lighter colors means 268 00:09:27,560 --> 00:09:25,020 there was fewer time goes that way that 269 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:27,570 direction okay and I could say all right 270 00:09:31,490 --> 00:09:29,010 this is one sequence and this is another 271 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:31,500 sequence how correlated are they what's 272 00:09:35,980 --> 00:09:32,970 the mutual information between these two 273 00:09:38,060 --> 00:09:35,990 sequences I get a number right great 274 00:09:40,190 --> 00:09:38,070 simple number throat in this equation 275 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:40,200 comes out the other end I can do this 276 00:09:44,930 --> 00:09:42,330 for all possible pairs of sequences in 277 00:09:47,690 --> 00:09:44,940 my system right up to length 6 because I 278 00:09:48,950 --> 00:09:47,700 don't want to do it forever all right 279 00:09:52,010 --> 00:09:48,960 and I can build something like this 280 00:09:54,530 --> 00:09:52,020 right so this is all these numbers where 281 00:09:55,850 --> 00:09:54,540 I've calculated what would happen what 282 00:09:58,340 --> 00:09:55,860 the mutual information between them 283 00:10:00,170 --> 00:09:58,350 would be right so now I've got a 284 00:10:02,090 --> 00:10:00,180 weighted network right this is an 285 00:10:05,510 --> 00:10:02,100 adjacency matrix for a weighted network 286 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:05,520 where the weights on the edges are the 287 00:10:08,870 --> 00:10:07,050 mutual information shared between those 288 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:08,880 two sequences and the nodes are the 289 00:10:17,090 --> 00:10:12,290 sequences this is capturing the dynamic 290 00:10:20,450 --> 00:10:17,100 correlations in this complicated model 291 00:10:21,980 --> 00:10:20,460 right so this is what this model looks 292 00:10:24,530 --> 00:10:21,990 like this is what the correlations look 293 00:10:27,380 --> 00:10:24,540 like now I've got the stochastic block 294 00:10:28,910 --> 00:10:27,390 model so i can ask is this structured is 295 00:10:31,970 --> 00:10:28,920 their structure there is there a 296 00:10:36,260 --> 00:10:31,980 rigorous way to characterize it and the 297 00:10:38,780 --> 00:10:36,270 answer is yes sometimes so depending on 298 00:10:40,820 --> 00:10:38,790 how effective my catalysts are structure 299 00:10:42,650 --> 00:10:40,830 emerges or a dozen in this system right 300 00:10:44,030 --> 00:10:42,660 so this is I used a different color 301 00:10:47,990 --> 00:10:44,040 scheme I'm sorry I made all these slides 302 00:10:50,300 --> 00:10:48,000 yesterday so these are the same networks 303 00:10:52,490 --> 00:10:50,310 that I just showed you this is when the 304 00:10:54,770 --> 00:10:52,500 catalyst is increases the reaction rate 305 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:54,780 by a factor of 10 and this is when the 306 00:10:59,720 --> 00:10:56,490 catalyst increases the reaction rate by 307 00:11:05,270 --> 00:10:59,730 a factor of 1.1 it's a zero but that's 308 00:11:07,490 --> 00:11:05,280 type of right so in this case if i use a 309 00:11:09,590 --> 00:11:07,500 bayesian inference method i can be 310 00:11:11,660 --> 00:11:09,600 confident my belief can be almost unity 311 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:11,670 that there is structure here and it's 312 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:13,290 the algorithm kind of breaks it up into 313 00:11:17,150 --> 00:11:14,850 this core periphery structure here which 314 00:11:20,510 --> 00:11:17,160 is nice the same thing for the low 315 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:20,520 calluses rate my belief is like barely 316 00:11:24,740 --> 00:11:22,890 better than then fifty-fifty chance I'm 317 00:11:26,450 --> 00:11:24,750 like now this is just it's probably a 318 00:11:28,100 --> 00:11:26,460 mistake like there might not be 319 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:28,110 structure there at all it's 5050 who 320 00:11:33,410 --> 00:11:31,170 knows right so these are two limits okay 321 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:33,420 so now what I can do is swing between 322 00:11:36,530 --> 00:11:35,370 these different catalysis rates and 323 00:11:39,140 --> 00:11:36,540 figure out what the likelihood of 324 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:39,150 structure being seen there is which is 325 00:11:45,290 --> 00:11:41,490 what you see here man that came out 326 00:11:47,690 --> 00:11:45,300 really bad okay all right so this is is 327 00:11:50,030 --> 00:11:47,700 basically relative belief how much 328 00:11:51,500 --> 00:11:50,040 stronger do I think how much more should 329 00:11:54,740 --> 00:11:51,510 I believe that there is structure there 330 00:11:57,710 --> 00:11:54,750 then I shouldn't believe so 5050 means 331 00:11:59,960 --> 00:11:57,720 like thats toss toss of a coin you can't 332 00:12:03,020 --> 00:11:59,970 really be sure here is the catalysis 333 00:12:05,810 --> 00:12:03,030 rate so i started at 0.1 here and then 334 00:12:07,580 --> 00:12:05,820 all the way to 10 you know dislike it 335 00:12:09,650 --> 00:12:07,590 stays pretty constant all the way till 336 00:12:12,470 --> 00:12:09,660 about five five and a half and then you 337 00:12:14,390 --> 00:12:12,480 get this sharp upswing here this is 338 00:12:16,010 --> 00:12:14,400 actually very well known in a very 339 00:12:17,570 --> 00:12:16,020 different context so people have seen 340 00:12:20,060 --> 00:12:17,580 phase transitions like this in icing 341 00:12:23,060 --> 00:12:20,070 models they've seen this in the 342 00:12:26,690 --> 00:12:23,070 community detection literature in 343 00:12:28,940 --> 00:12:26,700 network science so I can't be sure yet 344 00:12:30,170 --> 00:12:28,950 because I made this yesterday but I'm 345 00:12:31,910 --> 00:12:30,180 pretty sure this is a proper phase 346 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:31,920 transition so what do I even mean by 347 00:12:34,940 --> 00:12:33,450 that what is this phase transition 348 00:12:37,550 --> 00:12:34,950 represent running out of time so I'll 349 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:37,560 try it out quick what do I mean all 350 00:12:40,610 --> 00:12:38,490 right do you guys know what Bernard 351 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:40,620 cells are like if you take a thin layer 352 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:42,810 of fluid and you heat it on the bottom 353 00:12:46,100 --> 00:12:44,610 and like for a while nothing happens but 354 00:12:48,770 --> 00:12:46,110 you turn it way up and you start to make 355 00:12:52,460 --> 00:12:48,780 these like cycles right here right can 356 00:12:54,500 --> 00:12:52,470 it the onset of convection instead of 357 00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:54,510 just conduction that's what's happening 358 00:13:00,710 --> 00:12:58,050 here this is order on the scale of the 359 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:00,720 dynamics in the system right this is 360 00:13:07,490 --> 00:13:04,170 disordered this is ordered this is the 361 00:13:09,890 --> 00:13:07,500 transition from disordered to ordered in 362 00:13:11,900 --> 00:13:09,900 the dynamics so it's an ordered phase 363 00:13:21,330 --> 00:13:11,910 transition in the dynamics and 364 00:13:27,070 --> 00:13:23,590 all right we got time for like one 365 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:27,080 question if it's awesome anyone anyone 366 00:13:32,610 --> 00:13:29,450 nothing so I confuse that everyone got 367 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:32,620 one oh man I just kind of noticed that 368 00:13:38,620 --> 00:13:36,650 this catalytic increasing factor that's 369 00:13:39,970 --> 00:13:38,630 something in this very abstract model 370 00:13:42,910 --> 00:13:39,980 that you could actually relate to the 371 00:13:44,830 --> 00:13:42,920 real world is so could you perhaps go 372 00:13:47,230 --> 00:13:44,840 through and say like you know this 373 00:13:49,420 --> 00:13:47,240 catalyst this enzyme is really efficient 374 00:13:52,060 --> 00:13:49,430 so that would be more likely to cause 375 00:13:53,830 --> 00:13:52,070 more order in the system right so so 376 00:13:54,910 --> 00:13:53,840 that's what's interesting right so even 377 00:13:56,170 --> 00:13:54,920 if you have catalysts if they're not 378 00:13:57,700 --> 00:13:56,180 very effective if you're in this regime 379 00:14:00,040 --> 00:13:57,710 you're not going to see this global 380 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:00,050 scale change hmm but they don't have to 381 00:14:04,390 --> 00:14:01,730 be that effective right so the average 382 00:14:06,610 --> 00:14:04,400 effect of the catalyst is to speed up 383 00:14:08,500 --> 00:14:06,620 the like uncatalyzed reaction by a 384 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:08,510 factor of five right here which like we 385 00:14:12,100 --> 00:14:10,010 care to the bios yeah that's not much 386 00:14:13,660 --> 00:14:12,110 for right and here where it was 387 00:14:16,900 --> 00:14:13,670 completely ordered it was only a factor 388 00:14:19,390 --> 00:14:16,910 of 10 Wow so yeah so Troy factor of a 389 00:14:23,230 --> 00:14:19,400 thousand right yeah million i did i did 390 00:14:27,220 --> 00:14:23,240 this asymptotes it goes yeah yeah yeah 391 00:14:29,020 --> 00:14:27,230 um so yeah it's a good question yeah 392 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:29,030 that's awesome all right thank you very 393 00:14:32,740 --> 00:14:31,010 much oh I'm gonna plug one more thing if 394 00:14:34,420 --> 00:14:32,750 you think that scientific publishing can 395 00:14:35,950 --> 00:14:34,430 be done better and you think 396 00:14:37,510 --> 00:14:35,960 astrobiology can help do it you should 397 00:14:39,940 --> 00:14:37,520 talk to me before we leave because I'm 398 00:14:42,850 --> 00:14:39,950 really passionate about that are you 399 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:42,860 starting your own journal I I'm open to 400 00:14:45,730 --> 00:14:44,210 anything I'm gonna try to get everybody 401 00:14:47,470 --> 00:14:45,740 on free prints first and then we could